Solar Charging Could Fast-Track Electric Vehicle Adoption Across Africa

Electric vehicles could become economically competitive in Africa far earlier than many forecasts have suggested. Although only about 1 percent of new cars sold across the continent in 2025 were electric, a new analysis published in Nature Energy indicates that, when paired with solar off-grid charging systems, EVs could cost less to own than petrol-powered vehicles by 2040. Previous projections assumed that unreliable grids, limited charging infrastructure, and high financing costs would keep fossil-fuel vehicles dominant until at least mid-century. However, falling battery prices and scaling vehicle production are reshaping the economic outlook. “EVs have serious economic potential in most African countries in the not-so-distant future,” says Bessie Noll, senior researcher at ETH Zurich and co-author of the study. The research finds that two-wheelers, cars, larger vehicles, and even minibuses could reach cost competitiveness within the next 15 years, with electric scooters potentially becoming the cheaper option before the end of the decade due to their smaller, lower-cost batteries.

The study evaluates the total cost of ownership over a vehicle’s lifetime, including purchase price, financing, and fueling or charging costs, while excluding taxes and subsidies to focus on core economics. A key innovation in the analysis lies in incorporating the cost of solar-based off-grid charging systems, which include solar panels, storage batteries, and inverters. As mini-grids and standalone solar systems expand across Africa, such solutions may offer a practical alternative where grid reliability remains a constraint. Financing, however, remains a significant hurdle. In some countries, borrowing costs can exceed the original purchase price of a vehicle, and EVs' higher upfront costs amplify interest payments. While countries such as South Africa, Mauritius, and Botswana are approaching conditions favorable for EV cost parity, others facing political or economic instability would require major improvements in financing access. Experts note that as EV technology becomes more competitive globally, affordability will drive adoption. Solar charging may ease infrastructure challenges, but expanded charging networks and financial reforms will remain critical to accelerate the continent’s transition.